Mike Cameron essentially replaces Bay in left field, and while his defense makes up for weaker offensive numbers, Cameron is 37 and has a higher strikeout rate that Bay, averaging 177 Ks per 162 games over the past three seasons. That may not be a huge issues during the regular season, but when you look back at the dismal offensive numbers from the 2009 ALDS, you have to wonder why the Sox didn’t stick to their usual evaluation process and find an OF with better plate discipline.

David Ortiz’ OPS dropped from a career high of 1.066 in 2007 to career low of .794 in 2009 thanks to career worst 134 strikeouts… and he’s our DH. Mike Lowell has posted an amazingly consistent K-rate, despite the injuries, but the Red Sox are rumored to be negotiating with Adrian Beltre who averaged 20 more Ks per 162 than Lowell has over the past three years. Beltre’s glove would be an upgrade, but his bat would be a downgrade, in my opinion. And even the “Greek God of Walks” saw his strikeout numbers increase last season: 149 K per 162 G. Youk’s OPS was solid at .961, but now that he is a featured bat in this lineup, it looks like pitchers are attacking him a little more.

And that’s my point. The Red Sox don’t just need a power bat. They need hitter. That’s why losing Mark Teixeira last year still hurts… and why Matt Holliday (now) or Joe Mauer (2011) might be the answer.

The Red Sox were a combined 39-14 (74 W%) against the Orioles, Indians, Royals and Blue Jays – the dregs of the AL. But they were 23-17 (40 W%) against the Yankees, Angels, Twins and Tigers (17-16 if you focus on Division Champs only).

More specifically, the Sox went 2-4 while posting a pitiful .225 BA and a .750 OPS against Seattle – the AL’s best pitching staff – but they dominated the AL worst Orioles, winning 16 of 18 and hitting .335/.951.

So when they were forced to face three solid starters in the 2009 ALDS, they hit .158 with 16 strikeouts and 15 hits as a team. Much like they are today, the Sox were built to win a game 3 to 2, but they were out pitched and out hit by the Angels.

I understand why the Red Sox refused to give Jason Bay a 5-year deal. But I don’t understand why they gave one to John Lackey, who is 31 and has fought through injuries over the past two seasons. Now they need a bat and don’t have the financial flexibility to get one. Beltre will help on defense, but like Cameron, his bat might end up hurting them more than it helps. They reportedly offered Holliday $80 million, but they don’t have that to give anymore and he’s not likely to settle for less than $70M. And Joe Mauer may not even be available in 2011… and despite what you might be hearing out there, the 2011 Free Agent class is not full of better OF options other than Carl Crawford.

Bottom Line: The Sox need to bite the bullet and sign Matt Holliday or make damn sure they get Adrian Gonzalez in July. Otherwise, I don’t see this team scaring anyone in October, regardless of how many “aces” we have.