January 3, 2009

Battle for the Bench: Jeff Bailey and Lugo/Lowrie

Lowrie, Lugo or both in 2009? - sdowen

This is part one of Battle for the Bench. Click HERE to read the other entries.

 

Jeff Bailey - 1B/OF

The Red Sox have a few players in the farm system that could fill a bench spot in Boston: Jeff Bailey, Chris Carter and Jon Van Every have all performed well in the minors and in short stints at the major league level, but Bailey looks like the best internal candidate to fill the 1B/OF spot.

Chris Carter, who joined the Red Sox organization via the Wily Mo Pena trade, owns a .290 BA at the AAA level and went 6 for 18 (.333) with Boston in 2008. He hit 24 ding dongs to go along with a .300 BA in Pawtucket last year, but he hasn't played 1B in a while and his defense is still average at best.

John Van Every doesn't play first base, but he will be in the mix for the 4th outfielder spot. He can play all three outfield positions and hit 26 homers with Pawtucket last season.

Bailey turned 30 in November and has been in the Red Sox organization since 2004. He had three mediocre seasons with Pawtucket from '05 through '07, but hit .301 with 25 homers with Pawtucket in 2008. He earned 50 major league at-bats late last season and hit .280 and a pair of ding dongs during that stretch.

Much like Sean Casey, Bailey is not a speedster (he's actually a converted catcher), but he hits for average and has some pop. Casey hit .322 in 199 at-bats in 2008, fighting injuries and a lack of playing, but he has become a master at hitting from the bench. That could prove to be a challenge for Bailey, who registered 400+ at-bats in his last three seasons and that could be a factor in Bill James' projections:

James 2009: Jeff Bailey - 185 AB, .270 AVG, 12 2B, 8 HR, 28 RBI

Bottom Line: The Red Sox could offer Casey or Kotsay another year on the Boston bench, but Bailey is capable of providing similar numbers at a cheaper price and at 30, he could be in the prime of his career. Bailey is coming off his best season as a pro and Lars Anderson could see a call up as early as this fall, so it's now or never for the veteran minor leaguer.

 

Julio Lugo - SS/2B & Jed Lowrie - SS/3B/2B

The Red Sox have failed to find a suitor for Julio Lugo and his expensive contract. If the Sox are unable to move Lugo, he'll be battling Jed Lowrie for the starting job at short stop this spring. Lugo sprained his quad in June last season and never made it back onto the field.

Before the injury, he made 16 errors in just 82 games and was hitting .268, but what the .268 average hides is a .208 BA with runners on base and .139 BA with RISP. For most Red Sox fans it was hard to decide what was more frustrating.

Lugo hasn't played a major league game since June 11. Reports often indicated that his efforts to return to field continued to aggravate the injury, so his health remains a bit of a mystery at present. One thing is for certain: A serious leg injury, at 33 years of age, is not going the help his already dwindling range.

Jed Lowrie however, will turn 25 in April. Lowrie finished the 2008 season with a .258 BA, but thanks to 25 doubles, 3 triples and 2 homers in just 81 games, Lowrie managed to make a serious impact and more than double Lugo's production with the same amount of playing time. Most importantly, Lowrie hit an astonishing .297 with RISP and .450 with a man on third and two outs.

But Lowrie did more than hit in the clutch. Like Kevin Youkilis, injuries required Lowrie to bounce from short stop to third base on a regular basis, yet he made just two errors in 232 total chances.

Projecting what to expect from either player in 2009 can be tricky, especially when you're not sure how many at-bats either player will end up with come September. James projects Lowrie to get 544 at-abats, but also gives Lugo 463 at-bats:

James 2009: Jed Lowrie - 544 AB, .276 AVG, 37 2B, 5 3B, 10 HR, 79 R, 83 RBI

James 2009: Julio Lugo - 463 AB, .257 AVG, 25 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 60 R, 46 RBI

Not surprisingly, James' projections portray Lowrie as the more productive player, but after an amazing August in which he hit .284 with 12 doubles, 3 triples and 25 RBI, Jed kept hitting doubles (8) but hit just .213 in September and .207 in the playoffs.

The situation is very similar to the Coco/Jacoby platoon the Red Sox used in 2008. Ellsbury fell into a mid-season funk and Coco got hot. Then JD Drew hit the DL and both players stepped up, hitting in the mid .300s in September. With Mike Lowell recovering from hip surgery, the stage is set for a Lugo/Lowrie platoon to step up in 2009.

Bottom Line: It's good to have options and Coco's 2008 season proves that players can bounce back and surprise you. With both Lugo and Lowrie on the roster, the Red Sox don't need to make a move to fill this spot, but the Sox are still shopping Lugo and a strong spring from Julio could help them make trade, so we'll look at a few more options as the week goes on.

Tags: Boston Red Sox, Chris Carter, Jed Lowrie, Jeff Bailey, John Van Every, Julio Lugo, Mike Lowell

Discussion

2 Comments on "Battle for the Bench: Jeff Bailey and Lugo/Lowrie"

#1

user-pic

Posted by Tim Daloisio, January 3, 2009 8:02 PM

I continue to have a gut feeling that Lugo, if not dealt and if healthy, will end up playing a surprisingly larger role next season than people anticipate.

I like using Bailey and seeing what you have there. If, however, Kotsay were willing to come back in a reserve role, that's where I would turn.

The Mayor was a nice presence around the team last year, but I would rather someone a little more versatile.

Reply

#2

user-pic

Posted by Gerry, January 4, 2009 7:02 PM

As the Sox may need a bit more power from other sources (catcher, bench) I favor a bench of Baldelli and Bailey. What Lugo doesn't offer in power (though he perhaps could) he could offer in speed if he is healthy. However, Jerry Hairston comes close, and is more versatile, and can back the IF and OF, allowing Theo to sign Baldelli. Without Hairston's versatility, we probably would have to sign Kotsay instead of Baldelli, enjoy his great defense, and hope his bat returns.

Reply

Leave a comment