Q: Theo Epstein mentioned that Jonathan Papelbon can get better than he was this year. What areas do you see that Papelbon can get better, and what should he be working on in preparation for next season?
–Kris, Middletown, R.I.

A: We encourage our players to work on many aspects of their game in the offseason. With Pap, we want him to continue to get his legs and shoulder as strong as possible. That means he can throw a lot of innings (which bodes well for us). When he gets to spring training next year, we will try and get him to regain some of his confidence in his split-finger. Being the closer is not the best time to work on pitches. And when the split wasn’t there, he would find a way to win with his fastball. But when he has that split, it makes him doubly dangerous because hitters have to sit on two different speeds.

After reading this I was curious to see Papelbon’s PitchFX numbers and their correlation to success. Here’s what I found:

In 2007, Papelbon mixed in the change-up and split-fingered fastball 11% of the time and only threw the slider 2.5% of the time. The result was his best overall season to date. In 2008, Paps started throwing the slider more and the split-finger less… and in 2009 he abandoned the split-fingered fastball all together and threw the slider 9.2% of the time.

Paps didn’t have a bad year in 2009, saving 37 games and posting a 1.85 ERA. But a closer look reveals that his K/9 numbers were down: 10.06 from 12.96 in 2007 … his BB/9 rate was up 3.18 from 2.31 in 2007 … and his line drive percentage was up: 21.1% for 15.7% in 2007.

Bottom Line: Paps stopped making batters miss. They’re walking more, making better contact and striking out less. Tito thinks bringing the splitter back will make Papelbon a better pitcher.

Could it be that simple?