PLAYERS UNDER CONTRACT

J.D. Drew: $14 million
David Ortiz: $13 million
Mike Lowell; $12.5 million
Josh Beckett: $12.1 million
Kevin Youkilis: $9.37 million
Daisuke Matsuzaka: $8.3 million
Victor Martinez: $7.7 million
Jon Lester: $3.75 million
Dustin Pedroia: $3.75 million
Tim Wakefield: $3.5 million
Jason Varitek: $3 million
Junichi Tazawa: $1.1 million

Total: $92.07 million

ESTIMATE OF 2010 SALARIES OF ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE PLAYERS (based on projections and historical precedents):

Jonathan Papelbon: $8.5 million
Jeremy Hermida: $3.8 million
Casey Kotchman: $3.2 million
Hideki Okajima: $2.5 million
Ramon Ramirez: $1.1 million
Manny Delcarmen: $875,000

Total: $19.975 million

ESTIMATE OF 2010 SALARIES OF PLAYERS WITH YEARS 0-3 OF SERVICE TIME WHO ARE NOT ELIGIBLE FOR ARBITRATION (based on projections and historical precedents):

Jacoby Ellsbury: $475,000
Jed Lowrie: $430,000
Clay Buchholz: $450,000

Total: $1.355 million

CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS TO PLAYERS NOT CURRENTLY ON ROSTER:

Julio Lugo: $9.25 million
Billy Wagner: $1 million
Alex Gonzalez: $500,000

Total: $10.75 million

TOTAL: $124.26 MILLION

Bottom Line: If the Sox sign Jason Bay or Matt Holliday (and they have to), they will be adding $17M-$20M to that $124M, putting them at $144M with no short stop and not pitching depth. If the bring back Gonzo for $3M and add a starter like Rich Harden or Erik Bedard for $8M they’ll be over the $150M mark.

Like many Sox fans, I was hoping for a big splash this offseason, but FW thinks the Sox may be forced to sit tight and wait for Beckett, Lowell, Ortiz and others to come off the books in 2011.

With Lowell on the way out and money being “tight” I think the Sox need to push hard to trade for Adrian Gonzalez. He’ll cost $5M+ in 2011 while you move Youk to 3B and look to re-sign Beckett or go after Halladay, Cliff Lee or Brandon Webb… and a new DH.