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Who will bounce back the best from a mediocre 2009 in 2010?
 

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Is Marco Scutaro just the next Julio Lugo?
Written by Rob Munstis   
Monday, 08 February 2010 22:29

door

There's nothing like a six hour flight to Cali and the threat of a week long trade show about sprockets to get your mind, and heart, wishing for baseball.

That's right, sprockets. Don't ask...

So while I sipped my mini water bottles and munched on those blue potato chips that taste as not good as as they look, a few things crossed my mind. One of them was Marco Scutaro.

Specifically, the similarities that his path to Boston has with Julio Lugo's.

From 2000 to 2004, Julio Lugo was a mediocre shortstop that hit around .275, had 10 homer power and K'd about 20% of the time. Then, in 2005, Lugo had a career year, posting a .295 AVG and a .765 OPS, while dropping his K-rate a few points and stealing 39 bases to boot!

He was even better in 2006, hitting .308, posting an astounding .871 OPS and blasting an unprecedented 12 ding dongs in 435 at-bats for the Rays before being traded to the Dodgers.

No wonder Theo Epstein was so excited to hand him a 4-year, $36 million deal, right?

I don't need to tell you all what happened after that, but for the sake of my story, I'll remind you that Lugo reverted back to his mediocre ways, averaging a .682 OPS and looking quite horrible in the field during his time in Boston.

Lugo was finally shipped out of town, but the Sox are still paying his contract, even as they hand Marco Scutaro over 10 million bucks.

That's right... the same Marco Scutaro that has a Lugo-esque .265 career BA, but posted never before seen numbers like a .789 OPS, 12 homers and 100 runs scored before signing with Boston.

Theo will tell you that he signed Scutaro for his glove as much as hit bat, and there's no reason to belive that Marco won't be a major upgrade over Lugo defensively, but what is more likely: Another two years of above average production from a 36-year old journeyman or two more years of typical bottom of the order stats from the short stop position?

Bottom Line: Bill James and the other folks at Fangraphs think 2009 was a fluke and expect Scutaro to be back in the .260's with a handful of homers and an OPS in the low .700s.

I guess the question is: Are you okay with Lugo-like numbers at half the price or do you want more from your shortstop?



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Comments (16)Add Comment
Scutaro =/= Lugo
written by Freddy, February 09, 2010
I think there are three major differences between Lugo and Scutaro;

1 - Scutaro is coming off a strong year, Lugo was coming off his worst year.
2 - Scutaro is considered a good defender, even his most ardent supporters could only call Lugo average in his best days.
3 - (and this is the big one) The committment is SO much less. 2 years, $12 million is a minor committment. Even if he's a bust the Sox aren't gumming up the works here. If he doesn't pan out there is virtually no incentive to keep rolling him out there like there was with Lugo.
Exactly Freddy on #3.
written by went9, February 09, 2010
Half the years as Lugo and half the cash as Lugo per year. If Jed Lowrie gets healthy in Pawtucket and Scutaro fails, Lowrie steps in until Jose Iglesias is ready to take the job from him in Boston. Scutaro was the best available option at the time. I am OK with the risk of the Scutaro contract. He signed at a discount to play in Boston and I'll wait to see if his 2009 numbers were his outlier. I like our chances to win with this team to start the year. Let's get this camp started already.
Agree, Agree!
written by Geraldo, February 10, 2010
Marco explains his changed batting stance and shorter swing to account for his improved #'s in '08 & '09. IMO, it's just as likely those #'s came from playing every day, instead of off the bench.

WORST case scenario is he reverts to his seasonal adjusted average for 162G over 5.2 years of .267/.721 with 10/57/75, 7/2SB and 57BB/75K. That and his very good defense will be just fine in the #9 slot. But, somehow, I can't see the possibility of this hard-working baseball-head who finally got his chance, to blow it. Especially at Fenway which was seemingly built for his bat and swing. IMO, he will compete with Pedey for the most doubles, tattooing the monster for 40+.

I love these Scutaro highlights which co-incide with his going full time in'08+'09, among MLB SS.
1. Ranked #2 behind Jeter with .825OBP.
2. #1 with 4.07 pitchers per AB. Another grinder.
3. #1 swinging at fewest pitches outside k-zone. Only J.Bay, JD & Youk from the Sox are in the top 17.
4. #1 making contact @ 99.3%, ahead of Pedey @93%.
5. #2 behind Abreu @ lowest % of swings taken: 34% to 32.9%.

As a late bloomer, making it to MLB at age 26, he's finally got a full time gig. Because he is in great shape and he could still be improving, most think his regression due to age will be slow in coming. So, let's wait and see if Marco allows us to forget about the revolving door & Julio.

And for those prone to worry, Lowrie, Hulett, and the very interesting Angel Sanchez are in the wings while waiting for Iglesias.
comes w a glove though....
written by area man, February 12, 2010
even if his bat is Lugo-eque, his D should be a big step up!
...
written by PeterN, February 12, 2010
On the surface it looks similar, but shorter commitment like everyone else said, and also Scutaro is a better clubhouse guy, and a harder worker. Lugo seems like a guy who could've had a .800 + OPS every year if he wanted to, he just never was motivated.
...
written by Tom Jones, February 12, 2010
Stick to your sprockets. Comparing Lugos contract to Scutaros only proves you have little to no baseball acumen. Maybe a sprocket blog would suit you better.
very different
written by eli, February 12, 2010
Scutaro is half the money and less of a risk. if his numbers dont pan out like last years, so what, his numbers before that weren't half bad. He isnt going to hit like Lugo(.250), he'll easily score more runs than lugo, so there's no need to worry. Scutaro will be fine
...
written by CalvinBall, February 12, 2010
it's not the contract that's the problem. The Red Sox have shown that they can take an albatross with the best of them, and go out and spend whatever they want anyway.

The problem is that if Scutaro sucks, the Red Sox are (again) sunk at the SS position for 2010. Lowrie has shown nothing at the major league level. Whoever they have in AAA are bench players at best. Expecting Jose Iglesias to succeed at the major league level right now is ridiculous.

The risk isn't in the money. Teams like the Red Sox don't really risk much by giving money to players. The risk is the performance. Didn't we all learn that last year with the preponderance of 'low-risk' players like Penny and Smoltz? Everyone was wrong. They were high-risk, because Boston was relying on them to perform. Scutaro is a similarly high-risk player. The risk is in his performance, not his contract.
...
written by Shecky, February 12, 2010
Disagree about Lowrie having "shown nothing at the Major League level." I would've been pleased to see him handle a full season last year @ Short before the all the injuries completely curtailed his season. I thought he showed enough of a live, bottom-of-the-order bat in '08, and his glove was terrific that season; 2 errors at 3B and none at SS in 70+ games. I still like Lowrie but obviously, coming off last season, they needed much more of a sure thing @ SS going into 2010.
...
written by Soxfan, February 12, 2010
Scutaro’s not a superstar to be sure, but as pointed out by others, he’s less of a risk then Lugo at two years for 12 million. His career stats at Fenway aren’t bad where he’s hit;
BA: .290 OBP: .321 SLG: .400 OPS: .721

And also as mentioned if he reverts back to a .260’s hitter, he still plays good defense which is better then we’ve had in recent years, with the exception of Alex Gonzalez.
right
written by Corey S, February 12, 2010
As far as the Red Sox were concerned what were the other options they had this off season other than to go out and get him. Sorry you don't like them signing the best FA shortstop available for a good price. I guess you would have rather had kept who they had and hoped those players somehow have a better season than what we have seen. I really hope you wrote this to stir up some controversy and not because you actually believe what you wrote. Aside from him getting more playing time, you have to also look at his numbers as he has progressed and the teams that he has been with. Each year he has been with a new team his numbers have gone up and that can only make sense. You can look at the stadiums and the lineup that has surrounded him as evidence. Going from Oakland to the Jays and now to the Red Sox. It would not shock me at all to see his numbers stay similar to last years.
It's always about the Yankees
written by DavidC, February 12, 2010
Scutaro once hit a walk-off HR against Mariano. That's why Theo signed him. He only signs guys who have some history of success against the Yankees (even if it was only once).
...
written by rotofan, February 12, 2010
Is Rob Munstis the next village idiot?

Scutaro's power production last year was slightly down from his career mark. The reason he hit more homers is because he spent most of his career as a backup getting 300 to 400 at-bats.

As for hit batting average, the more telling stat is OBP, especially if he is to bat 9th in the lineup, but I'm guessing someone who wasn't smart enough to account for Scutaro's part-time role and the effect that had on home runs isn't smart enough to understand OBP and why it is a more useful measure than batting average.

Put aside last year for a moment. Scutaro played exceptionally well as a reserve in Oakland considering that park is hard on right-handed hitters and he was shuffled through three or four positions on defense. Adjust his Oakland stats for park and fulltime at-bats and he comes close to matching his numbers last year, with the only area of big improvement his patience at the plate, a skill he has always had an improved on but took to new levels.

Scutaro was a big reason why Aaron Hill and Adam Lind were among the league leaders in RBIs last year.
...
written by Artie, February 13, 2010
smilies/cool.gifThere was not much opportunity in this position during the off season. I think this is as best as you will get without trading up or looking within. Lowrie is a bust so far and I am tired of "potential". Potential adds up to nothing is never realized so it is in the same category as dreams. If Scutaro can be strong in the field, hit .285 with 10 - 15 hr and 75 rbi, then we can live with that until Inglesias is ready. The only other option would be trade possibilities. If there are any other answers, and I don't mean stupid trade deals where we trade no one and get someone, please let me know
...
written by harvey, February 13, 2010
Theo signed Lugo coming off a horrendous second half season with the Dodgers where he was exposed as a choker under pressure. He is a horrible defender. Scutaro is a "young 34"..not too many innings under the belt, coming off an excellent season in 009, and a good one in 2008. His offense in 2009 ranked him 5th best amongst ALL 2nd, 3d, and shortstops in the AL, great! good average, very good batting eye, some power, knows the strike zone Hey dont you remember Lugo had no concept of K zone? and Defense?? Scutaro solid to very good, Lugo horrible, Baseball savvy & accumen? Same answer No comparison here between these 2 get off Scutaro will ya!
good stuff everybody
written by bottomlinesox, February 18, 2010
Just now getting time to read over all the comments.

For the record, I know that he wasn't a full time player until last year, and I know that his contract is much less of a risk that Lugo's was, and I know that the Sox didn't really have a better option.

My questions is: Do you guys expect a repeat of 2009 or is it more likely that he will come back to earth and max out at .270, 10 HR, 75 R and 60 RBI?

I guess we'll find out when we get to Marco in the 2010 Projections!


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