| 01 February 2010
Prince Fielder's recent comments about his future (or lack there of) as a Milwaukee Brewer got me thinking... who will be the DH of the future here in Boston?
David Ortiz set the bar pretty high during his time here in Boston, averaging 37 homers, 119 RBI and a .962 OPS while powering the Sox to two World Series Championships. But, unless he has an unprecedented comeback this season at the age of 34, the Red Sox aren't likely to pick up his 2010 option. Let's see if any of the potential Ortiz replacements can fill Big Papi's shoes...
If Ortiz walks after the 2010 season, the Red Sox will need to replace him while considering extensions for Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez and possibly Adrian Beltre. They will also be looking at free agents like C Joe Mauer, LF Carl Crawford and RF Jayson Werth. There will be plenty of moola flying around next offseason, but let's put the money aside and look at the basic stats.
Victor Martinez will be 32 this coming offseason. He will be expected to prove that he can still be an everyday catcher this season, and if he does, the Sox may choose to avid the Joe Mauer sweepstakes and re-sign V-Mart instead. But Mauer turns 27 this April and is clearly the better choice for "catcher of the future." If the Sox make a run at Mauer, Martinez could be signed at the new DH and continue to help out at first base as well. He won't hit 40 ding dongs, but if you take away the wear and tear of catching, he could be a 30 HR, 120 RBI, .900 OPS player... maybe...
Sticking with the 2010 offseason plan, the Red Sox could turn to 31-year old Adum Dunn for plenty of power from the DH spot. Dunn has been robotic in his production totals, averaging 40 homers and 100 RBI for six straight seasons. Despite racking up equally impressive strikeout totals (177 Ks per season), Dunn still averaged an solid .917 OPS and as a DH, his poor defense would not be an issue. The only other concern about Dunn is that he's spent his entire career in the National League while playing on mediocre or bad teams... it's tough to predict how he will respond to the pressures of Boston and the AL East.
Carlos Pena, however, is a Boston-area native, and no stranger to the pressures of the AL East. Pena will be 32 this season and will likely hit the free agent market due to the Tampa Bay Rays' lack of financial flexibility. Like Dunn, Pena strikes out quite a bit, but offers 40 home run and 100+ RBI potential. The big question with Pena is: Did he peek in 2007?
It took Pena a while to get going as a major leaguer, but after a huge 2007 season, his average and OPS have fallen dramatically. His home run totals have remained above 30, but his line drive rate is down and his fly ball rate is up... if Pena can get back to "squaring up the ball", he could do damage at Fenway Park where he already owns a .291/.546/.911 line.
Now... if the Sox don't look to sign a new DH this offseason, they could extend Ortiz and go after some big names in 2012. Adrian Gonzalez is one of those big names and the Red Sox could make a run at him as early as the 2010 All-Star break if the offense is sputtering.
Gonzalez is just what the Red Sox are looking for: 40 homers, 100 RBI and decent plate discipline. A-Gon has consistently posted these numbers while playing for one of the worst offenses in baseball year and in one of the largest ballparks to boot.. The theory is that, with a little protection around him and 81 games at Fenway, Gonzalez would be a run-producing machine. A-Gon will turn 28 this May, and with Mike Lowell on his way out of Boston, the Sox could move Kevin Youkilis to third and play A-Gon at first while he's on the right side of 30... but if Beltre proves his worth in 2010, the Sox could keep Youk and Beltre at the corners and ask A-Gon to DH.
The Red Sox could also hold onto the truck-load of prospects the Padres would want in a trade for A-Gon and wait for him to hit the free agent market in 2012, but the Sox might be wise to trade for and extend Gonzalez before he hits the market with Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols. Having all those big names at one position could push all of their price tags into the $25M per year range...
Pujols and Howard add an interesting angle to this discussion. Both guys have been machines for their National League clubs and Pujols has actually done it for twice as long as Howard has, despite being one year younger. Both players are first baseman by trade, but will be in their 30s when they hit the free agent market in 2012... would either of them consider a DH job with an American League team?
Adrian Gonzalez would probably welcome the switch just to play for a contender, but Pujols and Howard already have rings and have played for their respected ball clubs their entire careers. Philly has the money to keep Howard and Ryan really doesn't have a reason to leave Philly... but Pujols will be looking for an Arod-like deal when he hits the market and I'm not sure the Cardinals can give it to him.
In fact, if Philly resigns Howard, the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox may be the only other teams capable of signing the great Albert Pujols... although the Cubs have some money... and wouldn't that be the slap in the face to Cards fans!
Lastly, there Prince... the guy who got this whole thing started. Fielder is the youngest of all of these players, currently as 25 years of age. He'll be 27 if and when he hits the free agent market and has had an impressive start to his young career. Like A-Gon, Fielder isn't likely to see a ton if success while playing for his current ball club - the Milwaukee Brewers. Because of that, he too could be traded during his final season under team control in 2011 and the Red Sox are loaded with prospects to offer Milwaukee. One key here may be Jed Hoyer... he knows all the details about the kids in the Red Sox system, but GM Doug Melvin is not nearly as knowledgeable about the rookies that Theo Epstein would be offer the Brewers. If the Red Sox deem Fielder and Gonzalez equal, Theo may be able to give up less to get Prince...
That said, Scot Boras will be representing Fielder, so that makes everything more complicated.
Bottom Line: There will be tons of talented players to choose from over the next two seasons. Many of them are first baseman, but all would likely be willing to play DH for a perennial contender with deep pockets. It will be a bit of a chess match to secure one of these big bats, especially with so many other pieces of the puzzle in flux, but the Red Sox have the cash and the prospects to go after any one of these guys.
If you were Theo, who would you sign as the DH of the future?
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