| 04 March 2010
The guys at YFSF turned me on to this cool Balls In Play (BIP) tool that enables you to stick a players hits from 2009 inside Fenway Park and see how differently they would have landed.
Example: Here are Mike Camerons BIPs while playing for the Brewers in Miller Park and what they look like had they been hit in Fenway Park:
Cam' hit 14 ding dongs at Miller last year, but had he playing his home games at Fenway, he could have hit as many as 20 if all six of those doubles (light blue) had enough height under them. You can also see eight pop/line outs that would have been off the Monster, or close to it.
What about Adrian Beltre and his dismal Safeco Field splits you ask?
Looks like Beltre has at least five doubles that might have been homers at Fenway Park, which would have doubled his total of four at Safeco last season. I also see at least three outs that are hugging the wall at Fenway and could have been homers, or at least doubles.
Let's flip the script and look at a pitcher. Here are John Lackey's dots from L.A.
Lackey coughed up 11 dingers in Anaheim last year, but one of those would have been in the triangle at Fenway and another might have been off the short bullpen wall in right... maybe. Unfortunately, I also see four long balls that might have been homers or wall-ball doubles in Fenway. Lackey has averaged 20 homers allowed per year... and it looks like the smaller Fenway Park isn't going to help.
Okay, cool stuff right? Let's mix it up again and look at one of our guys in another ballpark. Here's how Dustin Pedroia would have done last year if he played 81 home games at Safeco Field instead of The Fens.
Poor Pedey... He's always had better numbers at home, but 8 of his 10 home field ding dongs from last year would stayed in the park if he played in Seattle. I'm sure Pedroia would tell us that this tool is a piece of junk and that he would tear up Safeco if he played there... but this does add some validity to Beltre's splits and comments.
Speaking of players that enjoyed hitting at Fenway last year, here's an idea on how Jason Bay will fair in the larger Citi Field.
Yikes.Bay actually hit 21 homers on the road and 15 at Fenway last year, but only two of them hit the white on the Citi Field map. It should be noted that some of the homers to left probably sailed onto Landsdowne St. and would have carried out of Citi Fied also... but the map also shows us that Bay had at least 12 doubles that appear to have bounced off the Monster and would have been outs in New York.
Lastly... here's a peek at how Adrian Gonzalez' 2009 BIPs would have played out in Fenway...
I see 12 outs that would have hit or cleared the walls of Fenway Park. I also see five doubles that might have been homers at the Fens. Assuming half of these had the height to be home runs, A-Gon could have logged 25 home field dingers instead of 16 and at least 48 dingers overall. Interestingly, the dots also show us how well the left-handed AS-Gon spreads the field. This tells me that he is a perfect candidate for the Red Sox because he will put plenty of dents in the Monster while also enjoying the short porch in right.
Bottom Line: These dots don't acount for the trajectory of the ball or the weather, but it's funn to get a rough idea on how different fields effect the game.
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
