New product alert from Bottom Line Apparel!
Our mission for 2011 is to work with local artists to create fun, unique designs that you won't find anywhere else, and Mike was one of the first guys to contact us about making a cool new shirt. Mike is a serious basketball fan, so he immediately started throwing ideas at me for Celtics t-shirts and this design seemed like an instant winner.
With St. Patrick's Day just around the corner, Mike squeezed a ton of iconic Celtics images in to the shape of a clover and made an awesome t-shirt design that works just as well on March 17th as it will during the NBA finals this April. The upper leaf features silhouettes of Larry Bird, Dee Brown, Kevin McHale and other icons from the Championship run in the 80's and early 90's. The leaf on the left features Red, Cousy and Russell, among other iconic images. And the right leaf features images of the current Big 3: Pierce, Allen and Garnett.
Bottom Line: It's a shirt for Celtics fans of all ages... and even if you're not a basketball fan, the unique shamrock design makes for a sweet shirt to throw up on after the St. Patrick's Day parade.
Get this shirt in guys or girls style through the online store for just $20.00 with FREE shipping!
Check out some of Mike's other artwork below. You can see more of Mike's stuff at www.michael-weinstein.com and you can follow Mike on Twitter at www.twitter.com/mikeweinstein5.
Make your predictions for other Red Sox players - just click on a name below!
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP John Lackey, SP Josh Beckett, SP
Clay Buchholz, SP Jon Lester, SP Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
David Ortiz, DH Jacoby Ellsbury, CF Carl Crawford, LF
J.D. Drew, RF
Since coming to Boston in 2007, J.D. Drew has done just enough to avoid being burned at the stake in Faneuil Hall. He works the count, hits around .275 and occasionally hits a key home run that helps us forget the weeks of mediocrity that came before it.
While we did get 22 ding dongs from Drew in 2010, the mediocrity was at an all-time high, so I'm very curious to see how 2011 goes for J.D.
Last year Drew's average dropped to .255, down from the .276 average he had carried through his first three years with the Sox. His OPS fell over 100 points from the .900s to .793. And while his K-rate held steady at 22%, his walks rate fell from 15% to 11% in 2010. In short, Drew stopped doing what he does best - get on base.
Along the way, Drew told us that he wasn't seeing good pitches, and while he didn't swing and miss more than in year's past, he was making bad contact and swinging at pitches that he would normally ignore. A quick look at Fangraphs proves J.D.'s point:
2010 swings outside of the zone = 20.6%, up from 15.4% in 2009. 2010 contact outside of the zone = 70.2%, up from 59% in 2009.
So... was Drew being pitched differently or did he make bad decisions in 2010? He's built his career with a keen eye at the plate, so you hav to assume 2010 was an abberation, but if opposing pitchers plan to use this new approach going forward, Drew will have to adjust.
Bottom Line: Last year Drew hit .275/.836 before the break and .231/.740 after the break. With Youk and Pedroia going down in the second half, pitchers were able to work around guys like Drew and Ortiz, but Drew was also shuffled all over the lineup thanks to all the injuries. With 40+ at-bats in five different lineup spots, I don't blame Drew for losing his focus. If he stays healthy (and the rest of the guys to do), I expect a better season from J.D. in 2011... though I expect Mike Cameron to steal some playing time.
Rob's Prediction: 450 AB, .270 BA, .850 OPS, 25 2B, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 60 R
* Special Category: Walks - 80
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Spring Training is now rollicking along and I keep hearing about is how the Red Sox are the favorites to win it all this year. It’s a position that makes me a little uncomfortable. I even heard ESPN’s Tim Kirkjian say this morning on Baseball Tonight that if the Red Sox catching situation is their biggest worry, then this is a very good ballclub. Yikes!
Objectively it’s hard to find flaws with anyone’s logic. The lineup is as formidable as it’s ever been and the pitching staff has a couple of guys that had fabulous years and are young enough to still improve. A little return to form from some veterans and this is a potent squad, but sitting in the favorite’s chair is a little uncomfortable to me as a fan.
As a New England bred I am hardwired to wonder when the next shoe will drop. You can’t anger the baseball Gods by showing vanity because they’ll be more than happy to show you what can go wrong. The Puritans abolished celebrating Christmas for crying out loud and three hundred years later we’re still afraid of celebrating too much.
Allowing myself to revel a bit, though, the early signs of spring are encouraging. David Ortiz is swinging the bat like the Ortiz of old, albeit against early spring pitching, but it sure is nice to see. He even shares the team lead in steals for the spring, one ahead of both Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford. OK, he only has one, but it is still fun to see!
Bobby Jenks threw one inning of shutout ball in his first outing of the spring and anytime a pitcher that comes into the season with some questions has a good outing I’m encouraged - even if just a bit. Also encouraging is that Josh Beckett wasn’t seriously injured when he was struck in the dome by a ball during batting practice. Queue up the “Beckett’s hit in the head in spring really knocked something back into place” jokes should his season prove to be more of the Beckett of old rather than recent vintage. As an aside, I’m willing to bet that hitting the balls back to the infield is now firmly discouraged in camp.
Papelbon, Lester and Lackey also turned in solid outings to start the spring - Bard and Oki, however, not so impressive. But then that’s that the spring is for – work out the kinks and get things right for the season, though I do fear a bit for Okajima’s prognosis considering the way last season went. In other less than good news, 28 year old non-roster invitee Brent Dlugach dislocated his shoulder in what may be his last chance to make a major league ball club. Although considered a real long shot to make the team, you have to feel for a guy that has dedicated his life to a game that simply refuses to give back. Another reason to rein in the optimism a bit…but still…
I was listening to our buddy Tim Daloisio from Firebrand of the AL on Toucher & Rich this morning (yes I'm jealous) and he briefly touched on an interesting topic:
With Ellsbury and Crawford likely to hit first and third respecively in the lineup, would it be wise to keep Youk at clean-up and have him working counts while they wreak havoc on the basepaths?
There are two major reasons why this makes perfect sense:
1. Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crawford, Youkilis, Gonzalez gives you a prefect rotation of righties and lefties through the core of your lineup.
2. Last season, Youk saw more than four pitches per plate appearance (PPPA) before getting hurt. In 2009, Youk's 4.42 PPPA ranked him 1st in the AL. In 2008 he was 18th at 4.02. His career 4.31 PPPA ranks him 3rd all time since they started counting in 1988.
Clearly this is the guy you want at the plate with speedsters on base.
While Gonzalez is a .300 hitter with a .368 career OBP, nobody works the count like Youk does (.394 OBP). As the best hitter by far in the Padres lineup last season, Gonzalez probably didn't see many good pitches, so he probably was a little agressive when he had the option. But his 93 walks, good for 5th in all of baseball, and his 3.95 PPPA in 2010 prove that he never let that get to him. He didn't swing at bad pitches out of frustration and took the walks when they came, but you know he's comping at the bit this spring, knowing that pitchers won't be able to pitch around him like they have in the past.
That's why I think, letting him cut loose in the 5-hole is the best option.
Most teams would kill to have just one of these guys in the lineup, so it's almost silly to harp on this point, but the Red Sox will want to capitalize on the fact that they have two of the best runners in baseball, so you know Francona will be looking at these numbers.
Bottom Line: If were Tito, I'd hit Youk 4th and Gonzalez 5th, but with Ortiz (4.37 PPPA, 3rd in '10) and Drew (4.08, 10th) at 6 and 7, I can see why you might want to hit Youk 5th and break up the three lefties, but either way, we have multiple guys that know how to work the count hitting behind our speedsters, so they should have plenty of opportunities make opposing pitcher's head's explode.
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Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP John Lackey, SP Josh Beckett, SP
Clay Buchholz, SP Jon Lester, SP Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
David Ortiz, DH Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
Carl Crawford, LF
C.C. is one of two huge Free Agent signings for the Red Sox. He's been remarkably consistent during his first eight seasons in the bigs. He's almost a lock for a .300 average, an .800+ OPS, 10+ HRs, 40+ SBs and 90 runs.
As the major talent on the Rays for many years, Crawford struggled to cross the plate 100 times, despite being one of the fastest players in the game. But with an improved offense in 2010, C.C. broke the century mark for the first time since 2005 and managed to produce a career best 90 RBI to boot!
My point is: As the #3 man in this current Red Sox lineup, I see Crawford posting his first 100/100 season. Ya, that's right, I said it. 100 runs. 100 RBI... write it down.
He'll have Ellsbury and Pedroia in front on him and Gonzalez, Youk and Papi behind him. If he hits .300 and continues to get on base... he might end up being the most productive player in the lineup. He knows the AL East, so unlike Gonzalez, the adjustment is minor, and at 29, he's in his prime. Couple that with a .333 BA and a .816 OPS at Fenway over the past two seasons, and it's hard not to be excited about this new addition to the team.
I tried digging into his splits to see if there was anything interesting about Carl's recent stats, but to be honest, he's as consistent as they get. He did seem to be more aggressive in 2010, swinging at at pitches out side if the zone a bit more (35.6%), but his contact rate stayed the same (83%) and he held that .300 average, so the only concern would be a slight increase in his flyball rate (36%, up 7%).
Bottom Line: As a lefty, more fly balls at Fenway may result in more home runs for Carwford, but I still think the Sox would prefer to see him beating out grounders and driving the ball into the gaps.
Rob's Prediction: 610 AB, .298 BA, .820 OPS, 29 2B, 16 HR, 100 RBI, 102 R, 45 SB
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As you know, BottomLineSox has been running a series of fan prediction where in everyone can guess how each Red Sox player will perform this year in order to win prizes. (If you haven’t made your predictions yet, you really should. What can you lose?)
I’m going to make a series of predictions myself. I’m not a strong numbers person when I comes to sports. I can remember the occasional ERA or number of homeruns, but my brain just don’t absorb stats the way some people’s do. So I’m going to give a brief run down of how I think each player will do in generic terms. I’ll start with pitchers this week and hit the position players next. Feel free to disagree!
Matt Albers
I don’t know what to expect from anyone their first time in Boston. A guy could come into Beantown with decent career numbers, but not have any idea what it’s like to deal with Boston’s high expectations or the pressure that comes with competing in the AL East. Albers doesn’t have stellar stats (5.11 ERA, 317.1 IP over 5 years, 1.56 WHIP) and it would be easy to assume the 28-year old right hander would crash and burn, but who knows. Maybe the increased pressure coupled with the Red Sox’s good staff will bring out the best in him.
Scott Atchison
I have a feeling the soon to be 35-year old right hander will continue to be decent at eating up innings as middle relief. Atchison may not frequent ESPN’s Top Plays or Web Gems, but there is nothing wrong with that when a guy shows up and gets the ball over the plate.
Daniel Bard
I’m excited to see him this year. He was great last season (1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) and I have a feeling he will continue to do well if not improve! Which will be something to see in deed.
Josh Beckett
Part of me wants to feel that Beckett will be better than last year and perhaps even as good as he was in 2009. But there is another part of me that worries that last year’s struggles will continue. Will losing Farrell (who is now the Blue Jays manager) affect him? I’m going to try and remain cautiously optimistic that Beckett can at least improve on last year.
Clay Buchholz
I’ll admit that after 2008 it took me a while to warm up to Buchholz, but the guy has certainly earned everyone’s trust. Even if he doesn’t end up with 2010-type numbers (2.33 ERA 1.20 WHIP) this year, I expect Buchholz to do really well.
Bobby Jenks
I could see Jenks, like Albers, going either way. I don’t think the “big city” pressure will bother him since he played in Chicago for so long, but the hyper-competitive AL East might be harder on him.
John Lackey
The only two Red Sox loses I witnessed in person last year were pitched by Lackey, but I’m not going to hold that against him. As a number four starter he really didn’t fail. The length of his contract (5 years) took many fans (myself included) by surprise and may have raised expectations a bit too high. I have a feeling that he will do a little better this year as he continues to adjust to playing in Boston.
Jon Lester
No one in the Sox rotation right now fills me with confidence the way Lester does. Sure he’s prone to having the occasional “bad inning,” but for the most part the guy is as dependable as they come. I know this will be another great year for him.
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Attempting to make a prediction about Dice-K is almost impossible. Quite frankly nothing would surprise me at this point. But when you stop and think that this guy (who has his frustrating moments, but is never wholly dreadful) is our number 5 starter it shows you how great the whole rotation truly is.
Jonathan Papelbon
He may give us all headaches and heart attacks, but I refuse to give up on Paps. Everyone has a bad year. If 2010 is the worst year he has, we are all lucky to be able to call him our Closer.
Tim Wakefield
Tim Wakefield is an awesome pitcher and it almost doesn’t matter how he plays this year. His reputation will stand as a great knuckle-baller. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a repeat trip to the All Star Game.
Dan Wheeler
Of Albers, Jenks, and Wheeler I’m the most excited to see how Wheeler adjusts to playing in Boston. I’m cautiously optimistic that he will have a really great season for his new team.
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Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP John Lackey, SP Josh Beckett, SP
Clay Buchholz, SP Jon Lester, SP Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
David Ortiz, DH
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2010 was a lost season for Ellsbury. Thanks to Adrian Beltre, and my hopes for 100 stolen bases were crushed... just like Jacoby's ribcage.
Ellsbury played in 18 games last year, managed 15 hits and stole 7 bases. With healthy ribs, some friendly competition from the newly acquired Carl Crawford and plenty to prove... I'm hoping for big things from Ellsbury this season.
The assumption is that he'll lead off, but Crawford and Marco Scutaro can handle that job as well, so Tito may drop Ells to the 9 hole if he struggles at any point during the season. I'm guessing he stays up top, and with all kinds of fire power behind him... 100 runs scored might end up being a low ball suggestion.
I'd love to see 100 SBs and tons of first-to-third action, but what i realy want to see from Jacoby plate discipline and a solid OBP. Bill James is predicting a repeat of 2009 with a .300 average and a .355 OBP. I'd like to see him push closer to .400, but when I looked at last year's OBP leaders, I noticed that list is full of big guns like A. Puljos, M. Cabrera, A. Gonzalez, J. Votto Aand Joe Mauer. I didn' find a leadoff man until I hit Ichiro at .359...
This tells me two things: 1) Maybe .350 is just fine for a leadoff man. 2) Most of the guys above hit in lineups far less formidable than our 2011 Murder's Row. I didn't pull the stats, but my guess is opposing pitchers avoided those guys as much as possible, and went after the weaker hitters.
Ellsbury won't have that luxury. Pitchers won't want him on base, but they'll have to pick their poison all game with this lineup, and Jacoby isn't quite as deadly as Youk or Gonzilla.
Bottom Line: I still see 100+ runs and 60+ steals... but I'll be hoping for more!
Rob's Prediction: 607 AB, .292 BA, .760 OPS, 27 2B, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 110 R
*Special Category: 64 stolen bases
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While football and basketball are getting all the press in regards to their labor situations, the end of Major League Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement is sneaking up on us at the end of the 2011 season. A lynchpin to the discussions going forward is going to be the Albert Pujols negotiation and ultimate resulting deal – with whoever signs him.
Players like Pujols come to an organization once in a generation. In the same way Cardinal fans of the 40s and 50s had Stan Musial as the face, heart and soul of the franchise; so Pujols is for this generation. There are certain players that are “lifers”. While in the free agency era it’s becoming increasingly rare, there are players like Joe Mauer and Pujols that you can never imagine in another uniform in the same way we could never imagine Ted Williams, Yaz or Jim Rice playing with another team. While there are signs that Pujols’ numbers are starting to decline (over the last three seasons, strikeouts are up while average and OBP are declining), he is still a .300+ hitter who is going to get you 40 home runs and OBP over .400 – an All-Star however you slice it worthy of a top contract. But while that $30 million may be a bargain in 2012, is it going to be a bargain in 2018?
There are wider- ranging impacts on the game should Pujols’ demands be met – even if the Cards re-sign him. In 2010 the Cardinals total payroll was just north of $93 million. Can the team remain competitive long term with more than thirty percent of their budget tied up in one player? Ask the Texas Rangers when they went to the wall for Alex Rodriguez. I am not sure how the Cards can be successful down the road when they’ll need to restock pitchers and the bullpen -sadly an issue underscored with word that ace Adam Wainwright is gone for the year needing Tommy John surgery. Can Pujols be an everyday player when he’s 41? Hell, when he’s 37! If not, how in the world are they going to be able to shop him to the AL with that kind of contract?
If Pujols’ demands are met, the ripple through baseball will be the first tremor of a larger earthquake. Very few teams can swallow a $30 million salary. If those that can, do, the specter of ‘super-teams’ that has hung over Major League Baseball may start to become a reality. The owners of the ‘haves’ will go into the CBA negotiations with a completely different set of priorities than the ‘have-nots’. Starting negotiations without a united front is not what the owners need to be successful, but how can it be otherwise? The talent pool will consolidate among these teams and when young stars emerge and hit free agency, they will be picked up and the ‘super-team’ will buy their prime years. The strong get stronger and the talent gap widens. Even though the Sox are poised to be one of those ‘super-teams’, it’s a situation that’s bad for the game as a whole. An entire strata of teams will go into the spring knowing they have no shot and are essentially a feeder sub-league for the power teams (though one could argue that’s the case now!). Baseball will slide further behind football in America’s consciousness – unless football screws up its own house in the coming months.
no commentsMake your predictions for other Red Sox players - just click on a name below!
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP John Lackey, SP Josh Beckett, SP
Clay Buchholz, SP Jon Lester, SP Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
David Ortiz, DH
David Ortiz wasn't pleased when the Red Sox picked up his 2011 option... but he's all smiles now that Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford have been added to the lineup.
Ortiz bounced back from a disappointing 2009 season with a solid stat line in 2010: .270, 32 HR, 102 RBI, .899 OPS, but he continues to struggle out oft he gate (.143 in April) and against LHPs (.222, just 2 HRs). Tito started platooning Ortiz in favor of Mike Lowell last season, but when Ortiz got hot, Francona gave him a longer leash and he finished with 500+ at-bats. Lowell's health and a lack of options at times also contributed to Ortiz seeing plenty of playing time, but that may not be the option in 2011.
With a stacked lineup, full of lefties, Francona is going to have to make some tough decisions when facing southpaws. If he wants to stack the lineup with right-handed batters, Ortiz and JD Drew are more likely to be benched than Gonzalez or Crawford are. That mean, Ortiz may not get his usual 500 ABs.. .which is going to make it tough to reach those key milestones: 25 HR and 100 RBI.
Bottom Line: Ortiz proved he's still got plenty in the tank, so he'll be looking for one more contract after this season. But he will be platooned and he will be challenged more as the 5th or 6th man in the lineup this season... so while I do expect good things from Big Papi, I don't expect anopther 30/100 season.
Rob's Prediction: 475 AB, .260 BA, 32 2B, 28 HR, 94 RBI, 86 R, .850 OPS
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When you see a robin for the first time you know that spring is near. When the truck leaves Fenway filled with bats and balls you know Spring Training is near. When a guy hits a ball off a tee you know that he is on his way to recovery.
The Red Sox organization was all abuzz yesterday when Adrain Gonzalez took 20 swings off a tee in Fort Myers. The event marks progress in the new first baseman’s recovery from shoulder surgery. Four months ago Gonzalez said it would about four to five months before he could go back to swinging a bat and it appears he is right on schedule.
The surgery itself was a relatively minor one. The labrum is a cuff of cartilage that encircles the shoulder joint allowing for a full range of movement. Gonzalez did not have a labrum tear, he just needed it “cleaned out.” There is a similar joint in the hip. When Mike Lowell was injured it was because the labrum had torn and taken a piece of the bone with it and therefore required more work to repair and a longer recovery time.
The next step for Gonzalez is to hit off the tee for the next two days and then take a day off to be evaluated. If all goes according to plan Gonzalez will be ready for Opening Day in Texas.
All this just adds to the building excitement that a fast-approaching season brings. Gonzalez at first, Pedroia back at second, Youkilis over on third, Ellsbury back in the outfield, Crawford tearing up the base paths. We’re in for a wild ride and it starts in just 38 days!
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