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Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP John Lackey, SP Josh Beckett, SP
Clay Buchholz, SP Jon Lester, SP
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
When the Red Sox decided to let Victor Martinez walk this winter, many (including myself) were concerned that they wouldn't be able to replace his production. Defense wasn't V-Mart's specialty, but he called a decent game and was a switch-hitting .300 hitter with 20 HR power and 100 RBI potential.
Those guys don't grow on trees - especially at the catcher position.
But then the Sox added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to the lineup and suddenly, the combo of Tek and Salty didn't seem so bad. But now that Sprint Training has begun, I've been hearing all kinds of great things about Saltalamacchia. He spent the winter training with catcher's coach Gary Tuck and with Spring Training now underway, players and coaches alike are saying he looks like a "mini-Varitek."
As it turns out, Salty is now living out his dream scenario. There's always going to be pressure when playing in Boston, but with so much star power around him and one of the best catchers in the game as his partner behind the plate, all the pieces are in place for Saltalamacchia to finally live up to his potential.
Back in 2007, Salty was a hitting .300 in Double A and featured above average defense and a little pop... but since then he's struggled to stay healthy and has hovered under the .250 with his hitting. Bill James predicts a .249 BA and 12 HRs through 334 Bs (110 G). I'm hoping he can do a little better than that, but with limited stats and playing time to look at, it's really anyone's guess.
I do agree that he'll play more than Tek when all is said and done, but one thing that'd going to hurt him is hitting at the bottom of the lineup. Opposing pitchers are going to attack the 8th and 9th hitters, knowing that once the lineup turns over, they're going to face, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crawford, Gonzalez, Youkili and Ortiz...
That said, I'm Hoping Tito tells Salty to focus on getting on base. The Sox don't need him to hit 20 home runs or drive in 100 runs. All they need is for him to get on base ahead of the big guns. If he does, that the rest will be gravy.
Bottom Line: We've got a ton of catching talent in the farm system, but no one has performed well enough (yet) to replace Tek... I'm hoping Salty is that guy... then we can call up Wagner or Exposito in 2012 without all the nail-biting.
Rob's Prediction: 350 AB, .265 BA, .725 OPS, 18 2B, 10 HR, 47 R, 40 RBI
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Some random thoughts as Spring Training begins. I’ve been giddy from the 50 degree weather here in Minnesota, though we could get 15 inches of snow on Monday. Just a reminder from Mother Nature that winter is FAR from over – not matter what Punxsutawney Phil says.
- Have any of us under 50 seen a better Sox line-up than the one that should be hitting the field this season? From top to bottom there are threats to hit .300, drive in whoever gets on base, steal bases and hit home runs. My earliest recollections are the lineups that were built around Jim Rice and Fred Lynn and this one is head and shoulders above those.
- Who would have thought that the Red Sox would go into a season boasting not just one, but TWO players that could steal 40 bases in a season? In the not so distant past – and for a long time preceding it – the Sox were a go big and go home team. In theory, this team could play small ball if the situation called for it.
- I’m going to Spring Training! Well, I’m going to try to go. I’m attending a pedigree and conformation clinic in the Florida horse breeding heartland of Ocala on March 11 & 12 and will also be spending some time with my Aunt and Uncle in Delray Beach and then over to Tampa to check on Tabby Lane at Tampa Bay Downs (Fun Fact: it’ll be her birthday on March 17) a hop, skip and a jump away from Ft. Meyers. I’m hoping to get to the Sox/Tigers game and give you all a firsthand look at Spring Training. Any tips from anyone who’s been?
- What a rotation! If Beckett shakes off the blahs and Lackey bounces back – and there is no reason he shouldn’t – with Lester, Bucholz, Dice K and Wake in waiting. Yowza. Yeah, the Phils and Giants are formidable, but I like our chances.
- Bullpen. Great additions at the back and with Wake possible with Miller in long relief, Theo has tried mightily to turn a weakness into a strength. Get the starters through six and shut the door.
Expectations are higher than ever this season. I hope that the new additions gel nicely and we can stay with a focused and loose clubhouse. There could be no looking back. And look out Ft. Meyers – here I come!
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Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP John Lackey, SP Josh Beckett, SP
Clay Buchholz, SP
Jon Lester, SP
Jon Lester established himself as the ace of the Red Sox staff in 2010 with a 19-9 record, a 3.25 ERA and 225 K's through 208 innings. At 27 years of age, Lester is hitting his prime and is certainly capable of flirty with 20 wins again this season... so what is Bill James predicting a 14-9 record and an increase in ERA (3.53)?My guess is the .289 BABIP implies that he was a bit lucky last year and when you factor in an all the free passes (3.59 BB/9, up from 2.82 in '09 and '08)... I can't say I'm surprised by James' prediction. Lester has always walked his fair share of batters, but he's also managed to work around that problem with strikeouts. Last season, he fanned 225 batters for the second yer in a row, but there was another secret to his success in 2010... more ground balls.
Lester used his cutter (22%, +2) and his change-up (12%, +6) a bit more and his curve a little less (16%, -4), and that seemed to keep batter guessing. The results were plenty of swings-and-misses, as well as a 6-point jump in his ground ball percentage. If Lester can continue to mix up his pitches, we should be in for another solid season.
Bottom Line: Josh Beckett and John Lackey both look ready to make up for disappointing 2011 campaign. In theory, this will push Lester (and Buchholz) to be even better this season. You don't see too many 20-game winners anymore, but I think Lester has a good shot, given the Red Sox lineup, the defense behind him and his own talent.
Rob's Prediction: 32 GS, 206 IP, 20 W, 7 L, 3.40 ERA, 218 K
*Special Category: Walks - 75
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“Baseball is the only field of endeavor where a man can succeed three times out of ten and be considered a good performer.”
Ted Williams
Baseball is a study in dichotomy. It’s a team sport that’s all about a player’s solo effort. It’s slow paced with bursts of activity. It’s uniquely American, while attracting athletes and fans from all over the globe. You can ask a dozen baseball fans why they like the game and get a dozen different answers.
There is no way around it: statistics are a big part of baseball. Batting average, ERA, RBI, strikeouts. You can’t have much of a baseball conversation without these. But what is so enjoyable about baseball is that this game is as complicated as you want it to be. You can watch a game and keep an eye on these basic stats or you can delve deeper into the numbers. Over the last few years sabermetrics have gained popularity among scouts, analysts, and fans alike. ERA+, Value Over Replacement Player, Ultimate Zone Rating, and Adjusted OPS are just a few of the “new” stats that are more complicated to calculate and seem to take a more in-depth look at a player. (Bill Simmons did an excellent job of breaking down seven of these stats in his column last April.) Whether you are on the cutting edge of baseball statistics, or you stick to the categories your grandfather taught you at your first game, you can still love baseball.
Baseball is also a very relatable sport. You can see the players’ faces. There are no helmets and pads to mask their appearance. Players come in a variety of shapes, sizes, and colors just like people in “real life” do. Some players are short and some are tall. Some are slim and others are stout. Some were born after the Berlin Wall fell while others were alive for the first moon landing. Players come from every hemisphere of the earth.
Baseball has a rich and complex past. If you’re into history there is plenty to be learned from America’s pastime. Through segregation, desegregation, wartime, and peace, the boys of summer have played. But you can enjoy the game equally well if you’ve never heard of Abner Doubleday and you don’t know a time without a Wildcard playoff spot.
Whether you are young or old, rich or poor, a math whiz or a history buff, there is something for you in baseball. And a whole new season is ours to enjoy in only 45 days!
no commentsMake your predictions for other Red Sox players - just click on a name below!
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP John Lackey, SP Josh Beckett, SP
Clay Buchholz, SP
Buchholz finally reached his potential in 2010 with a 17-7 record and a 2.33 ERA - good for 2nd in the AL behind Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez. During the season, many attributed Clay's success to an increase in induced groundballs, but while his 50.3 GB% was down 3 points from 2009, it's not significant enough to result in 2.00 drop in his ERA.
What stuck out to me was an increase of his slider and the fact that he was throwing it 4 MPH faster than he has in the past. Buchhy's K totals dropped, but batters were swinging at pitches outside of the zone more (29.7%, up 7%) and making contact outside of the zone more (69.2, up 15%). That's how you get weak ground balls and pop flies...
The trick to 2011 will be keeping batters on their toes. Bucchy won't be sneaking up on anyone this season, so he'll need to continue to mix up his pitches. One problem could be the loss of Victor Martinez. V-Mart and Buchholz worked well together last season, but he'll need to develop new chemistry with Jason Varitek or Jarrod Saltalamacchia in 2011... it seems superstitious, but I can see this being a problem.
Bottom Line: In years past, Buchholz crumbled when things went wrong, but last season, he battled through adversity well and it seemed that he had grown more mentally tough. Hopefully that continues in 2011, despite the change in battery mate... but I expect a drop off in the stats.
Rob's Prediction: 30 GS, 185 IP, 14 W, 8 L, 3.33 ERA, 140 K
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Make your predictions for other Red Sox players - just click on a name below!
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP John Lackey, SP
Josh Beckett, SP
We recently discussed Josh Beckett as one of the Keys to 2011. In short, I chalked up the disaster that was his 2010 season to injury and predicted a leaner, meaner version of "The Beckinator" in 2011.Beckett was a mess in 2010. The back injury caused all kinds of problem and even when he came off the DL, he just didn't look right. John Farrell said Beckett had lost his edge/confidence and wasn't able to dig out of tough spots like we've seen in the past.
With a clean slate in 2011 and plenty motivation, I expect Beckett to have a solid season. One key to his success will be his effectiveness against lefties... and the Yankees.
Take a look how Josh has faired against lefties and the Yanks over the last three years:
2008 versus LHH - .260 BAA / .710 OPS compared to .252 / .687 versus RHH
2008 versus NYY - .238 BAA, 20 K, 5 BB, 27.2 IP
2009 versus LHH - .258 BAA / .696 OPS compared to .226 / .683 versus RHH
2009 versus NYY - .268 BAA, 28 K, 9 BB, 32 IP
2010 versus LHH - .310 BAA / .940 OPS compared to .267 / .726 versus RHH
2010 versus NYY - .339 BAA, 26 K, 13 BB, 26 IP
As you can see, when Josh is pitching well against lefties, he also pitches well against the Yankees, theoretically because the Yanks always have tons of lefties in the lineup, but with 26 of Beckett's 127 innings pitched coming against New York last year (and some pretty scary stats from those games) you have to wonder if the splits are bit skewed?
As a righty, Beckett typically faces more lefties than righties over the course of a season, so he needs to be effective against them. His track record proves he can do it, so that confirms that something was wrong in 2010. As we mentioned in the Keys to 2011 post, he backed off the curve last year and threw the cutter more often... with a healthy back and legs, the curve should be an effective pitch again and that's his best weapon against lefties.
Bottom Line: Quality Curveball =Success vs LHH = Success vs Yankees = Success for Red Sox
Rob's Prediction: 30 GS, 192 IP, 15 W, 9 L, 3.75 ERA, 190 K
* Special Category: BAA vs Lefties - .268
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While it’s not unusual to see minor leaguers – they need to impress – and the occasional veteran at Spring Training early, get a load of the list of Sox players in Ft. Meyers already:
Bard
Beckett
Lackey
Matsuzaka
Lester
Papelbon
Saltalamaccia
And position players:
Youkilis
Nava
Gonzalez
Kalish
We’re still a couple of days BEFORE the official reporting day for pitchers and catchers. Hell, Nava and Kalish have been hitting all week long. While certainly not guaranteed roster spots, these two obviously know what’s on the line this spring. Gonzo is still rehabbing his shoulder, but is expected to be ready for Opening Day. While he won’t be swinging a bat for a few weeks, he was already fielding grounders at first and running parachute sprints getting his legs ready as early as Wednesday. Even GM Theo Epstein was down in Florida early and is feeling good about the status of the recovering.
There are few things that send a baseball fan’s heart racing like knowing his/her team is as anxious as they are to start the season. Of course just being excited is no guarantee of success but with the additions this season (Crawford, Gonzo, Jenks) and the promise of good health (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, etc.) it’s hard not to fantasize about a 110 win season and a run through the playoffs!
Of coursefirst things first: get everyone into camp and start the getting into shape. Take the time to start jelling as a team. Good team chemistry was as important to the two World Series Championships as pitching and hitting. It’s time to knock the rust off and polish up the fundamentals. Seasons aren’t played on paper which means no team in the AL East is penciling the Sox in as “gimmes” to take the title. I guarantee you that no one in the American League is willing to concede a World Championship to the Phillies simply because of that impressive pitching staff (anyone remember the Braves of Smotlz, Galvine, Maddux et al?).
While our expectation and anticipation level is high, the same appears to be true in Ft. Meyers – and they’re putting in the work to make it happen.
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Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP
John Lackey, SP
Lackey's first year in Boston didn't go as hoped. I give him credit for making 33 starts while his teammates were dropping like flies, but the 4.40 ERA was tough to swallow and the .765 OPS against was his worst mark since 2004 thanks to a career high 233 hits allowed.Coincidentally, he also posted the same 6.53 K/9 rate he tallied in 2004... a season in which we went 14-13 in 32 starts. Are you seeing the pattern yet...?
In short, Lackey didn't fool many batters last season. One could argue that he saw more patient hitters than he did in the AL West, but I wanted to see for myself how relevant that theory really was... and, to my chagrin, it has merit.
In 2010 Lackey started 3 games against the Yankees (OBP, 1st / BB, 2nd) and 4 against the Rays (OBP 10th / BB 1st). He also started games against the Twins, Tigers and Rangers - giving him 10 starts against teams that ranked in the Top 10 in OBP.
In 2009, the Yankees ranked first in OBP and walks, the Red Sox ranked 2nd in OB and 3rd in walks, and the Rays ranked 7th in OBP and 4th in walks... but he only had to face each of those teams once, while starting 11 games against the A's, Rangers and Mariners. The A's ranked 21st/22nd... the Rangers were 24th/26th... and the Mariners were 29th/29th.
Bottom Line: I can't help feeling that this is a lame excuse for Lackey's mediocrity in 2010, but frequently facing impatient hitters in years past definitely enabled Lackey to average 7+ Ks per 9 innings, while keeping his BAA around .250 and his walk totals in check.
His first year in the AL East resulted in a drop in Ks (6.53 K/9), a significant jump in BAA (.274) and a career high in walks (72), so the move east had an effect on his 2010 stats. The question is: Can Lackey adjust?
I'm not sure that he can...
Last year he threw the fastball as often as he always has and he continues to throw it as 90-91 MPH. If he tries to get more aggressive, he's likely to get tattooed. At his age, he'll probably have to get more creative. During his best years in LA, his curveball was his best pitch, but he struggled with it in 2010. Maybe our new pitching coach can help Lackey get the snap back in the curve and teach him to mix his pitches a little better.
Rob's Prediction: 32 GS, 206 IP, 15-10, 4.10 ERA, 160 K
* Special Category: Hits Allowed - 208
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There are thousands of mundane but necessary operations required to run a baseball team. Tickets need to be printed. Seats in the stadium need to be hosed down. Garbage cans need to be emptied. Towels and uniforms must be washed. These things, and so many more, go largely unnoticed by fans.
There is one day of the year, however, when a simple act of baseball housekeeping is met with great fanfare. That day is today, Truck Day. Why would anyone care that an 18-wheeler is being loaded with bats, balls, equipment, and more? Because the truck’s final destination is City of Palms Park, in Fort Myers, Florida. And because it means Spring Training will start very, very soon.
It is a testament to the intense love (and you could say obsession) of Red Sox fans that they gather outside of Fenway to see stuff loaded on a truck. There are no players present. There are no autographs to be had. The only thing to be gained by taking time out of your Tuesday to stand on Van Ness is a sense of camaraderie with your fellow fans. I like to think it also shows a bit of appreciation for the many men and women who work behind the scenes to keep our Boys of Summer playing American’s pastime.
Are you a bad fan if you don’t care about Truck Day? Of course not. No one will doubt your love for the Sox if you roll your eyes at the hundred or so fans standing outside in the cold. But perhaps it’s ok to get excited about Spring Training almost starting. I don’t care much about Halloween except I know that Halloween means it’s almost Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving means it’s almost Christmas. Truck Day means it’s almost Spring Training and Spring Training means it’s almost Opening Day!
To all you lucky Boston residents meeting outside America’s Most Beloved Ballpark today, I wish I was with you. Say hi to Wally for me!
no commentsAndy Pettitte is retiring later today. As a Sox fan I’m thrilled, of course, because of the huge, gaping hole it leaves in the center of the Yankee rotation. C.C. is clutch up front, but after that things are a bit looser. It was hoped in the Yankee's front office that Pettitte would be there to stabilize things toward the top of the rotation. Phil Hughes is an 18-game winner, but his stamina over the course of a season is suspect. A.J. Burnett’s struggles have been well documented and Bartolo Colon and/or Freddy Garcia? I think not. On the field this is a huge win for the Sox and another tough loss in the Big Apple.
Sure to be discussed over time is going to be Pettitte’s worthiness for the Hall of Fame (240 career wins; 3.88 ERA; 19 post season wins) though as part of that discussion will be Pettitte’s admitted use of human growth hormone (HGH) to try and come back from injury. Given the “No habla Anglais” and “I’m not here to talk about the past” answers during government hearings, his admission was as refreshing as it was disheartening. Pettitte always seemed that he would be above cheating. But when the situation presented itself, Pettitte responded how you would expect: he stepped up and took the heat. It also appeared that he was readily forgiven quicker than any of the others who said one thing but proven to have done quite another (Mr. Palmero, white courtesy phone). Hall of Fame voters have completely and unequivocally shot down any of the alleged cheaters who have come before them so far. It will be interesting to see how they respond when Pettitte is on the ballot – his ‘on the fence’ status as far as stats go notwithstanding.
His last four seasons back in the American League, Pettitte was only 5-5 against the Sox. At times he could be masterful, but just as often was a punching page as witnessed by his 0-1 record against the Sox last season with an ERA of nearly 7 giving up 25 hits and 10 earned runs in only 13 1/3 innings of work. In fact, looking back over those last four seasons, here is how Pettitte fared against the Olde Towne Team:
2010 0-1 6.75
2009 2-1 3.75
2008 1-2 7.04
2007 2-1 5.24
While he didn’t always have it against the Sox, he always carried himself professionally and I never remember thinking, “Damn, I have that frigging Andy Pettite.” Posada, yes. Pettitte, no. He seemed to stay in the shadows, a private man who values family over all else – including, apparently, $12 million dollars. By mid-season this price could escalate should the Yankees fee it imperative to woo him back into the rotation. It’ll be interesting to see if he can resist the call then.
The Yankees will miss him greatly unless their reclamation projects come through (and we know from experience how often that happens) and we will be thankful for it. I will miss a class act. Best of luck, Andy – enjoy your retirement, I know I will!
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