OF Jeremy Hermida and the Red Sox avoided arbitration and agreed to a 1-year deal worth $3.345 million.

Hermida, the 11th pick in the 2002 draft, made $2.25 million as a Marlin last year when he batted .259 with 13 homers and 47 RBIs in 129 games. He asked for a raise to $3.85 million and Boston offered $2.95 million.

Tim Wakefield says he's healthy and plans to be one of the five starters come April.

"I've been right back on track with my normal offseason routine and I don't feel like there's going to be any setbacks, so I plan on being one of the five starters."

Wake is the last guy to start trouble in the clubhouse, but it will be interesting to see how Tito uses all six starters this year. As Craig from Circling the Bases reminds us, we had an abundance of pitching last season as well, but were forced to call up guys like Tazawa and Bowden along the way due to injury... I'll simply say this: Buchholz had a great September in 2009,  but he has yet to prove that he is worthy of Wake's job.

Would it really be such a big deal to use a 6-man rotation?

Lastly, Fire Brand looks at the state of the Red Sox bullpen here... One if By Land wonders if offering Josh Beckett a big extension is really a good idea... And NESN.com has the 2010 Spring Training Broadcats Schedule here.

2010 Fan Projections: As we fight our way through January and February towards the start of a new baseball season, we'll be looking at each player on the Red Sox roster and predicting how they will perform in 2010. But we want you guys to get in on the action too! Use the form at the bottom of each post to submit your projections for each player. After the 2010 season, we'll announce who did the best and award some prizes to the winners!

Click a name to make other 2010 projections:

Jonathan Papelbon

Daniel Bard, Reliever/Set-up Man

Daniel Bard's season totals from 2009 are pretty solid. In AAA Pawtucket he posted a 1.13 ERA with 29 strikeouts and just 5 free passes in 16 innings of work and logged 6 saves in the process. As a member of the major league club, Bard finsihed with a 3.65 ERA, 63 Ks, 22 BBs and 13 holds in 49.1 innings.

Not bad for a 24-year old rookie, right?

Not at all... but if you watched the games you know Bard's 2009 season had it's ups and downs. What I found interesting was his home/road splits. You would think being called into a close game at Fenway Park would be stressful, but Bard thrived while pitching in Fenway, posting a 1.46 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP and a .207 BAA in 24.2 innings. He also fanned 30 while walking only four. Bard logged the exact same number of innings on the road, but the results were not pretty: 5.84 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 2.47 BAA, 33 SO, 18 BB.

It's tough to pinpoint why Bard struggled on the road, but you could argue that two key games against the league's best made a huge impact:

June 14 @ Philadelphia: 0.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 1 K - Julio Lugo made an error on a DP and Saito walked in two of the four runs after Bard was pulled.

Aug. 9th @ New York: 0.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB - The Sox were up 2-1 in the 8th and Bard got two quick outs, but Damon and Teixeira went back-to-back and Bard earned a blown save and the loss.

If you take away those two games, Bard's road ERA drops to 3.35 and his overall ERA drops from 3.65 to 2.38. Lugo and Saito get some of the heat for the Phillies game, but Bard simply coughed up two homers to good hitters in the Yankees game. That's going to happen against good teams, but if the Sox want Bard to be the set-up man, or eventually be the closer, he's going to have to prove that he can beat the best.

Bard made 49 appearances for the Sox as a rookie last season. As the projected set-up man, he could log up to 60 games this season, but the Red Sox will be cautious about over working the young flame-thrower. Bard wasn't as dominant against southpaws as he was against righties, so Francona may opt to go with lefty and former 8th inning man Hideki Okajima in certain situations this season. That said... if Papelbon is traded during the season, the situation changes completely and my predictions below will be way off.

Bottom Line Projection: 58 G, 55 IP, 22 HLD, 4 SV, 2.95 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 72 K

Make your predictions using the form below. Just plug in your email address and the stats you expect to see from Bard this season and hit the SUBMIT button. We'll give away some prizes during the offseason...

We don't get the see where the "magic happens," but MLB.com has a "Cribs" style video of Jason Varitek's offseason workout program.

Who knew it was this easy to hit .220 in the majors... (snicker).

Josh Beckett owns a career 3.79 ERA but has tallied a 4.04 ERA over the past four years due to two mediocre season in 2006 and 2008. Will "The Curse of the Even Year" strike again in 2010?

John Lackey has very similar career numbers, but has been more consistent over his career. Since 2005, Lackey owns a 3.52 ERA and posted a career best 3.01 mark in 2007.

Jon Lester's career is much shorter, but he's been the most efficient of the three starters mentioned over the past two years, earning a 3.31 ERA since the start of 2008. At 26, he might get even better over the next few seasons...

Clay Buchholz has had a rocky start to his career, but he seemed to find his groove in September of last year. Buchhy went 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA in six starts that month. Like Lester he is in his prime years, but who knows what he'll do with 30 starts.

Daisuke Matsuzaka posted a 2.90 ERA in 2008, but missed most of last season with injuries. He constantly wiggled out of jams in 2008, but his "nibble the corners" approach has left him with a 4.00 ERA since coming to Boston. Your guess is as good as mine what he'll do in 2010.

Lastly, there's Tim Wakefield. The knuckleball makes him the most unpredictable of all the starters. Even with 11 wins at the All-Star break last yer, Wake had tallied a 4.31 ERA - essentially his career mark. It would be shocking and scary if he lead the team in ERA in 2010.

So who do you think will lead the pak? The improved defense should help everyone, but cast your vote in the sidebar and leave a comment with your thoughts.

The results are in from the latest poll and the fans predited that David Ortiz will hit the most home runs of any Red Sox player in 2010.

As we discussed at the start of the poll, Ortiz was the likely favorite after hitting 28 dingers last season despite a dreadful first half at the plate. Apparently, Red Sox fans are expecting Big Papi to bounce back in 2010... but if he and Mike Lowell end up sharing time as the DH this year he may not get enough at-bats to reach the 30 HR mark.

Kevin Youkilis was second in voting with 33.3 % of the vote but has never hit 30 homers in a season. Interestingly, Mike Cameron and Victor Martinez earned significantly fewer votes than Youk even though all three players likely to hit 20-25 homers in their sleep. It will be interesting to see what V-Mart does in his first full season wioth Boston and if the Green Monster hurts or helps Cameron's power numbers.

2010 Fan Projections: As we fight our way through January and February towards the start of a new baseball season, we'll be looking at each player on the Red Sox roster and predicting how they will perform in 2010. But we want you guys to get in on the action too! Use the form at the bottom of each post to submit your projections for each player. After the 2010 season, we'll announce who did the best and award some prizes to the winners!

Papelbon has been one of the most consistent closers in baseball over the past three seasons. Only Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan and Francisco Rodriguez and Francisco Cordero have joined Paps with 30+ saves, 59+ games and 70+ strikeouts in each of their past three seasons.

So it should be easy to predict what he'll do in 2010, right?

Normaly, I would say yes, but there are two major factors worth considering here. The first is Daniel Bard.

The Red Sox just agreed to pay Papelbon $9.35 million for this season, putting him on pace to make $12M+ in 2011 before hitting the free agent market. With Bard and his 100 MPH fastball ready to replace Papelbon as closer, the Red Sox could start listening to trade offers come July. Papelbon will only be that much harder to trade next year, so if the Sox discover that they need a big bat or simply get an offer they can't refuse at the All Star break, Paps could be closing games elsewhere in the second half.

Since the Sox need proof that Bard can handle the pressures of being a closer, in Boston no less, he may also steal a few save opportunities from Paps along the way this season.

The other factor to consider is the new look of the Red Sox. With an improved defense and a potentially weaker lineup, the Red Sox will likely find themselves squeaking out more close games than in season's past. This could mean more save opportunities for Paps, but it could also lead to fatigue, if he's over worked.

The Red Sox have tried to protect Papelbon's arm throughout his entire career. If he logs more than 40 innings by the All-Star break, the Sox may be more likely to start using other options in save situations. That said, there is an incentive in Papelbon's 2010 contract that earns him an extra $50,000 if he tallies 60 appearances, so you know he'll be pushing for that goal regardess of his stats at the break.

Lastly, Papelbon made two distinct changes in 2009. He threw his slider more and his split-fingered fastball less. He also tweaked his mechanics, twice. In Spring Training the Sox asked him to work on using his legs more, but halfway through the season he also adjusted the motion of his hands in the start of his wind-up. The results were a shaky first half and a more Papelbot-like performance from Augsut 1st on:

April 7-July 28: 2.09 ERA, 1.372 WHIP, .670 OPS against
July 29-Oct. 4: 1.44 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, .466 OPS against

If he can put together a full season at last year's second half pace, Papelbon could have a career year in 2010.

Bottom Line Prediction: 61 G, 62.1 IP, 40 SV, 2.05 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 79 K

Make your predictions using the form below. Just plug in your emaill address and the stats you expect to see from Paps this season and hit the SUBMIT button.

With Papelbon, Delcarmen and Ramirez officially signed on for 2010... here's a look at the current Red Sox payroll for the upcoming season - courtesy of Cot's Contracts:

Ellsbury, Bard and Buchholz should all get minor raises for 2010 but the three additional contract aren't likely to total more than $1.75 million. And with the creative contract the Sox gave Beltre, his figure is actually only $7M in regards to the CBT luxury tax. That means the $162.5 million mark is roughly where the Sox will stand with Jeremy Hermida still unsigned and a few minor league deals to hand out.

Bottom Line: It will be close, but it looks like they will avoid going over the $170 million CBT ceiling again this season.

WEEI.com is reporting that Jonathan Papelbon and the Red Sox have agreed on a one year deal wirth $9.35 million.

This deal will make Paps the highest paid closer withing the first four years of service, passing Eric Gagne's mark of $8 million. It also means he will be set to command $12+ million in 2011 and be on pace to earn the Mariano Rivera-type deal he has been waiting for when he becomes a Free Agent in 2012.

This deal also inches the Red Sox closer to the estimated $170 million CBT luxry tax ceiling, leaving little room for raises for Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez and Jeremy Hermida.

Bottom Line: Earlier today we discussed how this kind of deal would affect Papelbon's future here in Boston. I still contend that he will be traded before he becomes a free agent - especially if Daniel Bard has a big season this year.

Jonathan Papelbon could send Theo Epstein to his first arbitration meeting as the Red Sox GM if the cannot agree on a contract for the 2010 season today. Papelbon has stated that he would rather go year-to-year with the Red Sox rather than sign a multi-year deal before testing the Free Agent market, and having made $6.25 million in 2009, he will likely be looking for $8-10 million this year.

That means the Red Sox will have some decisions to make in the 2011 offseason.

Daniel Bard will have all of 2010 to prove whether or not he has the stuff to replace Papelbon as the closer. If he does, the Sox could trade Papelbon at the All-Star break or in the 2011 offseason. The Sox would probably be foolish to trade one of the best closers in the league while he is still under their control, and while they are still capable of making a World Series run, but if Paps makes $10M+ this year, he'll be expecting Mariano Rivera money ($15M) in 2011, and that will make him tough to trade.

The other concern with Papelbon is his health. Pitching Coach John Farrel recently stated that the Sox attempted to adjust Papelbon's mechanics last season in an effort to protect his shoulder. Paps didn't respond well to the adjustment and tweaked his mechanics again midway through last season. The results were positive and Farrell says Paps will continue using this new approach going forward. But that raises some questions:

How long will Papelbon's shoulder/arm last if he doesn't adjust?

Will he be giving 100% every time he takes the mound, knowing that he needs to stay healthy if he wants that Rivera-type contract?

If Bard can prove that he is capable if being a big league closer, the Red Sox will have the flexibility to discuss trade offers for Papelbon. The Sox could include Papelbon in a deal for Adrian Gonzalez, but the Padres have Heath Bell under control through 2011 and he is only making $4M in 2010. Almost every team in the league would be interested in trading for Papelbon, but only a few are capable of paying him what he will want as a free agent... and one of them in the Yankees.

That's why trading him before the end of 2011 makes sense for the Sox.

The Red Sox are one of the those teams with the money to pay Papelbon, but they will also have a number of holes to fill after the 2010 season. With Ortiz, Lowell and Varitek all becoming free agents, the Sox could use Papelbon to trade for a big bat. They also need to decide how much they are willing to offer Josh Beckett to stay in Boston... especially, now that Felix Hernandez appears to be signing a five-year deal with the Mariners.

Bottom Line: Bard is the key here. If he proves his worth this season, I say re-sign Beckett and use Paps to get a bat.

What do you guys think?

NESN's Peter Gammons is reporting that the Red Sox reduced their offer to re-sign Jason Bay after an MRI showed signs of wear and tear on Bay's knees. Gammons says they were only willing to offer him a two year deal:

“You had the same thing here with Jason Bay, when he agreed to the four-year, $60 million deal near the end of July and then the MRI showed some problems with both knees,” said Gammons. “Ownership wanted it to be two years and he had to prove that he was healthy to be able to make it four years, and he wouldn’t sign. This is no reflection on [Red Sox team physician Dr. Thomas] Gill and the Red Sox doctors, because they are probably the best in any sport. But the fact is, there becomes this disconnect where the player says, ‘Is he doing this for the owners or is he doing this because of my knee?’ That independent panel, I think, will almost certainly be a compromise that the owners will make.”

Guess we know why Bay seemed miffed this offseason and why he signed with the Mets knowing that the organization is in disarray at present.

People thought New York overpaid for Bay before this info about his knees... do they look even more foolish now for giving him $60 mil and an option?

And will Sox fans be a little less angry about Bay leaving, now that they know the reasons for letting him walk?